Final Oscar Predictions: Who Will Win the Most Uncertain Race in Years?

The most wide-open Oscar season in years finally comes to a head this weekend. Who will walk away with the gold?

Lacking an Oppenheimer-level colossus, or even a surprise surge like the one we saw for Everything Everywhere All at Once, this season instead has spread the wealth among several unconventional contenders. The odds-on Best Picture favorite is Anora, Sean Baker’s feature-length adaptation of Katy Perry’s “Waking Up in Vegas.” The rest of the field includes Emilia Pérez, a musical about a transgender Mexican cartel boss; The Substance, a stomach-churning satire about aging; and The Brutalist, a three-and-a-half-hour film about architecture. All three look set to take home multiple Oscars — as could Conclave, the closest thing we’ve got to an old-school Oscar player, which is hoping to play spoiler in the Best Picture race.

Compounding the unpredictability, the L.A. wildfires forced key precursor ceremonies to be delayed until after the Oscars. Just when we thought we had the acting races figured out, BAFTA and SAG threw late wrenches into the works. Even the specialty categories — International, Documentary, and Animated Feature — feel ripe for upsets. I’ve never been less sure of my picks in so many races; nevertheless, I must do my duty to help you claim victory in your Oscar pool. Here are my final predictions in every single category.

Best Picture

Photo: Neon/Everett Collection

Anora
The Brutalist
A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
I’m Still Here
Nickel Boys
The Substance
Wicked

We flirted with Wicked. We danced with Emilia Pérez. But now the race has seemingly narrowed to a pair of challengers. (Not those ones.) Winning the Palme d’Or last year in May made Anora the presumptive front-runner for much of the season, and though the comedy briefly seemed to be fading down the stretch, a pair of back-to-back trophies from the DGA and PGA revived its fortunes. Conclave’s journey mirrored the plot of the film: The papal drama lingered quietly in the background as other contenders got tarred by one scandal or another, then came on late by winning at BAFTA and SAG. An entertaining adult drama that’s liked by pretty much everyone, Conclave feels like a title that should benefit from the preferential ballot. However, while its strategy of being most voters’ No. 2 pick might have been enough to triumph in a world where it was up against The Brutalist, Anora feels equally suited to the preferential ballot. Sean Baker’s film got nominated in more major categories and seems to have more passion behind it, to boot. Anora may not look like a traditional Best Picture winner, but like its heroine, it’s got an underdog scrappiness that only adds to its charm.

Best Director

Photo: Trevor Matthews

Jacques Audiard, Emilia Pérez
Sean Baker, Anora
Brady Corbet, The Brutalist
Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
James Mangold, A Complete Unknown

It’s been five years, all the way back to the Bong versus Mendes showdown of early 2020, since we’ve had a Best Director race with this much suspense. Baker and Corbet, our dueling contenders, are mirrors of each other, two indie wunderkinds who offer opposing models of artistry: soft-spoken collaborator versus uncompromising genius, run-and-gun improv versus painstaking planning, Neon versus A24. (I’m kidding — Baker used to be an A24 guy before jumping to Neon for Anora, while Corbet made the opposite swap.) Baker won the DGA prize, while Corbet won the Globe and BAFTA, so this one’s as close to a toss-up as you’ll find. Nevertheless, a year this wide open feels like the wrong one for a sweep, so I’ll go Corbet, whose direction has more of the grand technical wizardry that voters tend to reward here.

Best Actor

Photo: Lol Crawley/A24/Everett Collection

Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice

Credit Chalamet for making this one interesting down the home stretch, but his 11th-hour victory at SAG has not swayed me from predicting Brody. As I wrote earlier this week, the Academy is highly resistant to giving awards to young men, and I don’t see Timmy’s unconventional campaign — low on in-person glad-handing, high on viral stunts — tipping the needle for older voters. Brody has been working the circuit hard in support of his awards comeback, and unlike Chalamet, whose role is distant and detached by design, his turn as a traumatized, tragedy-stricken architect feels easier for viewers to engage with emotionally. It’s true that as a former winner, there’s less narrative impetus to hand the veteran another trophy. But as Frances McDormand and Emma Stone have proved, today’s Academy is happy to overlook that if the performance is strong enough.

Best Actress

Photo: MUBI/Everett Collection

Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, The Substance
Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here

That said, here is a category where I expect narrative to play a major role. Oscar voters have traditionally loved an ingénue, and in Madison they’ve got the breakout star of the Best Picture front-runner, giving a performance that packs one hell of a punch. (And a kick, and a bite …) She’s split the precursors with The Substance’s Moore, and ordinarily I’d say that Anora’s overall heat gives Madison the edge. Still, I can’t help being swayed by Moore, who’s run a pitch-perfect campaign that ties together her awards bid, the themes of her film, and the arc of her career. Like The Whale’s Brendan Fraser two years ago, she’s a blockbuster veteran speaking earnestly about how it feels to be taken seriously for the first time in her career, and I expect her, too, to win. Few could have expected she’d do it for a film like The Substance, but that’s the beauty of the new Academy.

Best Supporting Actor

Photo: Searchlight Pictures/Everett Collection

Yura Borisov, Anora
Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice

Writing about the increasing number of sweeps in the Supporting races, Numlock’s Walt Hickey blamed the prevalence of co-leads, which has mutated Supporting Actor and Actress into awards for “Best Leading Actor Who Is Running in a Slightly Easier Category So They’re Not Competing Against a Co-Star.” You can quibble about whether Culkin is really a supporting actor, or whether he’s “just playing himself,” but nothing you say can change the fact that, since the season began, this award has been his to lose.

Best Supporting Actress

Photo: PAGE 114 – WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS – PATHÉ FILMS – FRANCE 2 CINÉMA © 2024

Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Ariana Grande, Wicked
Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez

Regardless of how the Karla Sofía Gascón scandal ultimately impacts Emilia Pérez’s Oscar fortunes, this is one place I expect the musical to be unaffected. The Saldaña sweep should continue, as voters appear to have made the sensible decision not to punish a Black woman for her co-star’s racism. The Marvel alum has navigated a tricky situation as nimbly as she handled the film’s intricate choreo, and in a strange way, Demi Moore’s campaign has boosted her as well: If voters are giving one underappreciated “popcorn actress” her due, why not appreciate another while it’s still her moment?

Best Adapted Screenplay

Photo: Focus Features/Everett Collection

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Nickel Boys
Sing Sing

A slick, well-made movie that mines the utmost drama from quiet conversations in intimate settings, Conclave feels like a quintessential Adapted Screenplay winner. Screenwriter Peter Straughan has won this prize in every precursor where he’s been eligible, and he’ll win here, too, for turning airport-novel source material into a Best Picture contender.

Best Original Screenplay

Photo: NEON

Anora
The Brutalist
A Real Pain
September 5
The Substance

Tradition says that the road to Best Picture runs through Director or Screenplay, so logic compels me to go with Anora’s Sean Baker here. If you don’t abide by those rules, this category opens up, making room for a Substance surprise or A Real Pain to reign. Both of those fit a mold for an Original Screenplay winner: A Real Pain as the talky Sundance movie; The Substance as the contender that’s a little too weird to win the bigger prizes. But I figure if voters like Anora enough to give it Best Picture, they’ll like it enough to vote for it here, too.

Best International Feature

Photo: Alile Onawale/Sony Pictures Classics/Everett Collection

Emilia Pérez, France
Flow, Latvia
The Girl With the Needle, Denmark
I’m Still Here, Brazil
The Seed of the Sacred Fig, Germany

For the past few years, International has been one of the easiest categories to predict: Simply pick the one that’s also nominated in Best Picture. Except that this year, there are … t-t-t-two??? Emilia Pérez was long thought to have this on lock, but this could be where the film pays the price for the Gascón scandal. Suddenly there’s an appealing alternative in I’m Still Here, which is not only fresher in voters’ minds but also should resonate amid the troubled political backdrop of the past few weeks. That Emilia Pérez triumphed at BAFTA, whose voting took place after Gascón’s infamous tweets resurfaced, could be a sign the musical will pull through. However, I’m going out on a limb and predicting I’m Still Here: Amid the chaos of the second Trump administration, its tale of a Brazilian family resisting authoritarianism may suddenly feel a lot closer to home for voters.

Best Documentary Feature

Photo: Picturehouse

Black Box Diaries
No Other Land
Porcelain War
Soundtrack to a Coup D’Etat
Sugarcane

A funny thing has happened to this category. Figuring that the Academy’s wider membership would hand the trophy to a celebrity doc every year if they could, the Documentary branch resolutely refuses to nominate any film about a famous person, no matter how heralded. This has made the precursors less and less useful, as most of them tipped for Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story. Throw in the fact that nominee No Other Land still lacks U.S. distribution, making it ineligible at the major guild awards, and the whole thing gets even more messy. (This has not stopped the film, which follows Palestinians in the West Bank resisting Israeli efforts to force them out of their homes, from becoming the highest-grossing doc in the field.) No Other Land has taken the bulk of critics’ prizes, but I can’t help but wonder if, after the furor caused by Jonathan Glazer’s comments at last year’s ceremony, Israel/Palestine remains too hot for the Academy to touch. The Porcelain War, about a trio of artists near the front lines of the war in Ukraine, presents a story of violent conflict that should go down easier for voters, and it earned more guild recognition than the other nominees.

Best Animated Feature

Photo: DreamWorks/Everett Collection

Flow
Inside Out 2
Memoir of a Snail
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The Wild Robot

In a redo of last year’s Animated Feature face-off between Across the Spider-Verse and The Boy and the Heron, we’ve got another Hollywood success story going up against another international underdog. Considering the ever-more-global Academy, Golden Globe winner Flow should not be counted out, especially as it also managed a nomination in International Feature. But PGA winner The Wild Robot scored bonus noms of its own in Score and Sound, and unlike Spider-Verse, it tells a complete, satisfying story.

Best Film Editing

Photo: Focus Features/Everett Collection

Anora
The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked

This trophy could conceivably go to any of the nominees except perhaps The Brutalist, whose three-and-a-half-hour run time might prompt zingers about whether there was any editing at all. The musicals Wicked and Emilia Pérez feature rat-a-tat cutting that screams “editing!” to voters, and considering how this category sometimes acts as a Best Picture bellwether, we shouldn’t count out Anora either. Adding to the confusion, the American Cinema Editors awards aren’t happening until after the Oscars this year, so the only precursor we’ve got to go on is BAFTA. The Brits handed their prize to Conclave, which feels like the favorite here, too, since the pacing of its papal politicking is as tight as a drum.

Best Original Song

Photo: Shanna Besson/PAGE 114 – WHY NOT PRODUCTIONS – PATHÉ FILMS – FRANCE 2 CINÉMA

“El Mal,” Emilia Pérez
“The Journey,” The Six Triple Eight
“Like a Bird,” Sing Sing
“Mi Camino,” Emilia Pérez
“Never Too Late,” Elton John: Never Too Late

Emilia Pérez comes into this category rocked by scandal, with two of its songs competing against each other, leading many to wonder whether that opens the door for longtime Oscars bridesmaid Diane Warren, who competes again this year with The Six Triple Eight’s “The Journey.” Though she received an honorary Oscar in 2023, “The Journey” is Warren’s chance to get the competitive trophy that’s eluded her on 15 previous nominations. My heart would love to see it, but my head compels me to note that the Oscars ballot doesn’t list songwriters’ names, and I’m not sure if The Six Triple Eight penetrated enough for voters to catch that it’s the Warren movie. Anyway, Netflix has put all its chips on “El Mal,” which benefits from serving as the showcase scene for Saldaña, a likely Oscar winner.

Best Original Score

Photo: Lol Crawley/A24/Everett Collection

The Brutalist
Conclave
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

Bum-bum-bum BUMMM! It’s The Brutalist, for Daniel Blumberg’s instantly iconic four-note motif.

Best Cinematography

Photo: A24

The Brutalist
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Maria
Nosferatu

Half a century on from Planet of the Apes, somebody finally figured out a new way to film the Statue of Liberty. Lol Crawley shot The Brutalist on an old-fashioned film format called VistaVision, and his expansive analog cinematography exemplifies the movie’s throwback appeal: For those who mourn that they don’t make ’em like they used to, here is a film that was quite literally made the way they used to. Maria did beat Brutalist with the American Society of Cinematographers, but with no other nominations I doubt enough Academy voters made time for the Maria Callas biopic.

Best Costume Design

Photo: Giles Keyte/Universal/Everett Collection

A Complete Unknown
Conclave
Gladiator II
Nosferatu
Wicked

Pink goes good with green, doesn’t it? For recognizing this fact, and on the basis of sheer wit and whimsy, I suspect that Wicked’s Paul Tazewell will be the, well, popular choice.

Best Makeup & Hairstyling

Photo: MUBI

A Different Man
Emilia Pérez
Nosferatu
The Substance
Wicked

The Suicide Squad Memorial Oscar usually prioritizes high-drama looks over more subtle transformations. That’s good news for The Substance, whose makeup only gets more and more unhinged over the film’s final hour. As a bonus, the body-horror flick probably has the benefit of featuring an Oscar-winning performance, just as the past three Makeup winners did.

Best Production Design

Photo: Universal Pictures

The Brutalist
Conclave
Dune: Part Two
Nosferatu
Wicked

When all is said and done, Wicked will likely come away from Oscar night with the Black Panther package: a Best Picture nomination, plus wins in Costume Design and Production Design — the latter for fantasyland sets that hearken back to cinema history while also feeling like their own vision. The Brutalist could steal the prize, though, since films about the craft that’s being honored sometimes have an advantage.

Best Sound

Photo: Warner Bros./Everett Collection

A Complete Unknown
Dune: Part Two
Emilia Pérez
Wicked
The Wild Robot

The gender binary is alive and well in Oscar’s below-the-line races. You’ve got your “girl” categories, like costumes, and you’ve got your “boy” categories, like cinematography and visual effects. Sound is a “boy” category, so while Wicked may have won elsewhere, here the musical will likely finish behind the explosions and eviscerations of Dune: Part Two. Watch out, though, for A Complete Unknown, which has been campaigning its sound work hard in the home stretch, and just notched an upset win at the Cinema Audio Society Awards.

Best Visual Effects

Photo: Warner Bros./Everett Collection

Alien: Romulus
Better Man
Dune: Part Two
Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes
Wicked

Dune: Part Two is up against a much more butch set of contenders in Visual Effects, but I expect it to prevail here, too, as Best Picture nominees traditionally have a leg up in this category. Incidentally, that’s the reason none of the new Planet of the Apes films have ever won, though you have to figure that trend will end eventually. If you’re feeling bold, why not bet that this will be the year?

Best Live-Action Short

Photo: WILLA

A Lien
Anuja
I’m Not a Robot
The Last Ranger
The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent

In the shorts categories, voters tend to prioritize impact above all else, which makes watching the Live-Action Short nominees in particular feel like being hit in the face with a sledgehammer. This year’s field is mercifully free of a Skin or a Two Distant Strangers, and the two nominees most plugged in to the current political moment have none of the cloying obviousness that usually marks an Oscar short. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent is a taut re-creation of a real event that took place during the Bosnian War, which has unfortunate parallels to our own trajectory. While that’s my personal favorite, I’d give the Oscar edge to A Lien, whose gripping depiction of a Trump-era ICE raid is, unfortunately, all the more immediate.

Best Animated Short

Photo: The Animation Showcase/Everett Collection

Beautiful Men
In the Shadow of the Cypress
Magic Candies
Wander to Wonder
Yuck!

Despite serving as the mo-cap model for all the characters in Beautiful Men, I’ll do my best to set aside my bias. Cutesiness tends to carry the day in this category, so I’ll go with Yuck!, a French short about tweens who are grossed out by kissing.

Best Documentary Short

Photo: Neflix

Death by Numbers
I Am Ready Warden
Incident
Instruments of a Beating Heart
The Only Girl in the Orchestra

Incident, a recounting of a police shooting constructed entirely out of body-cam and security footage, is the critics’ fave, while the Death Row doc I Am Ready Warden packs the most emotional punch. But when the field is full of depressing subject matter — Death by Numbers is about the Parkland shooting — lighter fare stands out. Instruments of a Beating Heart is pretty similar to last year’s winner, The Last Repair Shop, so I’m predicting The Only Girl in the Orchestra, which, like previous doc short winners Colette and The Queen of Basketball, is a miniature portrait of an elderly person with a fascinating life story: in this case, Orin O’Brien, a female bassist for the New York Philharmonic who also happens to be the daughter of two stars from the Golden Age of Hollywood.