Who’s Going to Win at the 2026 Golden Globes?

Awards season kicks into high gear this weekend with the Golden Globes, which has thrown aside its old reputation as an old-school boys’ club and rebranded as a vertically integrated media monopoly. The Globes used to be famous for bonkers movies and television picks, but since its corporate revamp, it has mostly been content to echo the received wisdom midway through awards season. (Last year, Emilia Pérez earned ten nominations and four wins, before Karla Sofía Gascón’s downfall.)

Nonetheless, on the film side, the Globes still has influence. Since its membership is entirely international, the awards sometimes reflect the taste of an increasingly global Academy better than guild precursors like the SAG Awards or DGAs. And besides, there’s no better campaign opportunity than a big televised win at the Globes — it’s free advertising days ahead of the Oscars vote. (The Emmys, meanwhile, take place nine months after the Globes.) Last year, contenders like Demi Moore and Fernanda Torres got a huge boost from winning at the Globes. Who will follow in their footsteps this year when the Globes air Sunday night on CBS, with Nikki Glaser returning as host? Read on for our picks. —Nate Jones

Movies

Photo: Focus Features

Best Motion Picture – Drama

Frankenstein
Hamnet
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sinners

One of the most suspenseful awards of the night, this prize will determine which lucky contender gets the honor of being considered the No. 2 horse in the Oscar race behind One Battle After Another. In all likelihood, it’ll be one of the quartet of Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Sentimental Value, and Sinners, all of which also earned Director and Screenplay noms at the Globes. In a vacuum, I’d say Sinners has the edge, but the fact that Ryan Coogler’s film couldn’t garner any acting nominations outside of Michael B. Jordan makes me think Globes voters liked it less than the general populace did. So let’s zag a bit and throw it to Hamnet, which has been quietly lurking since winning the TIFF People’s Choice Award. Chloé Zhao’s film showed up well with SAG and could come roaring back with a big win on Sunday.

The likely winner: Hamnet
The fun pick: Sinners

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama

Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams
Oscar Isaac, Frankenstein
Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

The lower-key undercard to the Timmy-versus-Leo showdown over in Comedy. Of the nominees, Isaac, Johnson, and White have already dropped off Oscar’s radar, while Edgerton is fighting for his spot. Jordan is repping the biggest movie, but his action-hero performance doesn’t scream “awards” to me, so I think he’ll lose out to another dual-role specialist: Moura, who’s been winning all sorts of precursor prizes and should benefit from the strong Brazilian representation among the Globers’ new membership. Did you know they make up the largest contingent of voters by country?

The likely winner: Wagner Moura
The fun pick: Wagner Moura

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Tessa Thompson, Hedda
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby

At some point we can have the conversation about whether Buckley is as indomitable as she appears, but that won’t be happening at the Globes, where she’s up against a fairly thin field of contenders. Of her co-nominees here, only Reinsve looks close to landing an Oscar nom.

The likely winner: Jessie Buckley
The fun pick: Jennifer Lawrence. Who doesn’t want to see J.Law give a wacky speech?

Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Blue Moon
Bugonia
Marty Supreme
No Other Choice
Nouvelle Vague
One Battle After Another

Warner Bros. will swear there was absolutely no calculation involved in running One Battle After Another as a Comedy at the Globes. If so, the field just happened to shake out awfully nice for the presumed Oscar front-runner: As with Buckley in Drama Actress, all the heat’s on the other side of the bracket. In fact, they should spare us the phony suspense and just present this award first. Why make Paul Thomas Anderson always wait around until the end of the night? Let the man rest!

The likely winner: One Battle After Another
The fun pick: Literally anything else winning would be the biggest shock of awards season thus far.

Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice
Jesse Plemons, Bugonia

I still believe pundits are underestimating DiCaprio’s chances of winning a second Best Actor Oscar. Remember that, over the past three years, we’ve seen Anora, Oppenheimer, and Everything Everywhere All at Once all pair their Best Picture wins with a lead-acting trophy. But at the Globes, where youth and buzz reign supreme, I don’t see anyone beating Chalamet. Which Timmy will we get at the podium: press-tour d-bag Timmy or humble Oscar-trail Timmy?

The likely winner: Timothée Chalamet
The fun pick: Timothée Chalamet

Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
Emma Stone, Bugonia

How real is the Rose Byrne phenomenon? The Australian has been taking the bulk of the critics’ group awards, and since the Globes are essentially a critics’ group with a TV deal, I expect her to prevail here too. Unfortunately, the genre split means we’ll have to wait for SAG’s awards to see her and Buckley face off on neutral ground.

The likely winner: Rose Byrne
The fun pick: Amanda Seyfried or Emma Stone would add some enjoyable chaos to the fringes of the Best Actress race.

Best Supporting Actor – Motion Picture

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

The fundamental question of this year’s Supporting Actor race: Will the two OBAA guys cancel each other out? That wasn’t a factor with the smaller tastemaker groups where del Toro steamrolled, but it may explain why the Critics Choice Awards’ larger voting body gave this prize to Elordi instead. The Globes’ membership is around half the CCA’s, small enough, I think, for del Toro to keep his momentum going. However, watch out for these international voters springing for the prestige-Euro pick, Skarsgård, instead.

The likely winner: Benicio del Toro
The fun pick: Stellan Skarsgård

Best Supporting Actress – Motion Picture

Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Nobody knows what in the world is happening in this category, so hopefully the Globes will bring some order to the proceedings. I see it going one of two ways: Either Taylor wins it for her contributions to the OBAA steamroller, or the Globes echo its Critics Choice brethren and go for the gonzo pick, Madigan, who has somehow become one of this unsettled race’s few sure things.

The likely winner: Teyana Taylor
The fun pick: Amy Madigan

Best Director – Motion Picture

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet

It’s fair to wonder how far OBAA’s Best Picture dominance will extend downballot, but I don’t think anyone’s doubting Anderson’s chances of pulling off the Picture/Director double. It’s his movie and his moment.

The likely winner: Paul Thomas Anderson
The fun pick: Ryan Coogler, whose win would inject a mote of possibility that Sinners could maybe crash the One Battle party.

Best Screenplay – Motion Picture

One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
Hamnet

You’ll notice this is essentially the same lineup as Best Director, with Marty Supreme swapped in for Frankenstein. But OBAA is less assured of a win here than elsewhere, since the Globes usually like to use the Screenplay category as an opportunity to spread the wealth. Even if Hamnet doesn’t end up beating Sinners for the Drama prize, I could see it prevailing here, since it’s straightforwardly “literary” in the manner of last year’s Globe winner, Conclave.

The likely winner: Hamnet
The fun pick: It Was Just an Accident

Best Song – Motion Picture

“Dream As One,” Avatar: Fire and Ash
“The Girl in the Bubble,” Wicked: For Good
“Golden,” KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied to You,” Sinners
“Train Dreams,” Train Dreams
“No Place Like Home,” Wicked: For Good

In April, it didn’t look like anything was going to get in the way of Sinners’s standout musical number in the Original Song race. But that was before KPop Demon Hunters dominated both the Netflix charts and the “Billboard” charts all summer long. Now “Golden” should be going up, up, up to the podium.

The likely winner: “Golden”
The fun pick: “I Lied to You”

Best Score – Motion Picture

Frankenstein
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Sirāt
Hamnet
F1

Finally, a category where Sinners can feel confident about a win. Ludwig Göransson’s blues-inflected score is one of the film’s most potent elements, and after winning the Critics Choice prize last weekend, he’s generally considered the Oscar front-runner.

The likely winner: Sinners
The fun pick: Sirāt, a movie about postapocalyptic desert raves with the oontz-oontz to match.

Best Motion Picture – Animated

Arco
Demon Slayer
Elio
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2

One potential stumbling block for KPop Demon Hunters is that Hollywood films have had a tougher go of it on the Animated Feature front recently. However, I don’t know if I see a Flow or Boy in the Heron in the race this year. Besides, the international flavor of the Netflix hit should help assuage any doubts regarding its appeal to Globes voters.

The likely winner: KPop Demon Hunters
The fun pick: Little Amélie or the Character of Rain, whose Globe nomination has inspired plenty of delightful jokes around its title. Play it in a double feature with The Chronology of Water!

Best Motion Picture – Foreign Language

It Was Just an Accident
No Other Choice
The Secret Agent
Sentimental Value
Sirāt
The Voice of Hind Rajab

Welcome to the Neon Derby, in which five of the six nominees hail from the same indie label. Of those, Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident appears to be the one to beat, and at the Globes it was one of five films to nab Picture, Director, and Screenplay honors. (Sentimental Value was another, though Accident looks to have pulled ahead of its Scandinavian stable mate.) It’s tempting to imagine the Brazilian political thriller The Secret Agent feeling even more timely after the Trump administration’s little adventure in Venezuela, but that news broke too late in the voting window to have much effect. Something to think about in the future, though.

The likely winner: It Was Just an Accident
The fun pick: The Secret Agent

Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement – Motion Picture

Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
KPop Demon Hunters
Mission Impossible — The Final Reckoning
Sinners
Weapons
Wicked: For Good
Zootopia 2

Here’s why I’m bearish on Sinners taking home the Best Drama trophy — because, in the two years that this trophy has existed, the Globes has used it as a way to reward the most populist pick in the Best Picture field, which it then feels free to overlook in the real races. It happened to Barbie, it happened to Wicked: Part One, and given the relatively muted reception for Ryan Coogler’s film from the international contingent, I’m pretty sure it’s gonna happen to Sinners.

The likely winner: Sinners
The fun pick: KPop Demon Hunters, a streaming movie whose victory would only further confuse everyone about what this award is supposed to signify.

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Like Nate, I also remember when the Golden Globes used to be tacky. For everything that was legitimately corrupt about the erstwhile Hollywood Foreign Press Association, when it came to handing out awards, it knew how to have a good time. Over the years, the Globe TV winners have included shows like The Affair, The Kominsky Method, Mozart in the Jungle, and Nip/Tuck. It has awarded performances like Kelsey Grammer’s in Boss, Teri Hatcher on Desperate Housewives, and Matt LeBlanc on Episodes.

But after a transfer of ownership and a revamp of the voting body, the Golden Globes TV awards have gotten positively respectable. Last year’s winners were 90 percent retreads from the previous Emmy Awards. The advantage the Globes historically have is that it can get a jump on the shows from the second half of the year that weren’t yet Emmy eligible. Unfortunately, this year’s nominees are heavily weighted toward the shows and performances that have already been recognized. There are a few nominees who feel closer to the unhinged Globes of old, but they’re fighting an uphill battle against Emmy winners like Adolescence, The Pitt, and The Studio. —Joe Reid

Television

Photo: Warrick Page/Max

Best Television Series — Drama

The Diplomat
The Pitt
Pluribus
Severance
Slow Horses
The White Lotus 

Everything in this category was an Emmy nominee in September — even shows like The Diplomat and Slow Horses, which are nominated here for their most recent seasons, whereas the Emmys nominated their previous seasons. The Pitt took the Emmy win in a slight upset over Severance, and while I wouldn’t rule out a Severance comeback here, the fact that The Pitt is currently unveiling its second season makes me think voters will be incredibly Pitt-pilled. The old Globes would have absolutely gone for Pluribus, which is not only the lone new show in this lineup, but a buzzy one from an established awards fave in Vince Gilligan. But the Globes has historically been cooler on Apple TV+ titles in that platform’s short history.

The likely winner: The Pitt
The fun pick: Pluribus

Best Television Series — Musical or Comedy

Abbott Elementary
The Bear
Hacks
Nobody Wants This
Only Murders in the Building
The Studio

Zero new comedies among this Emmy-copied lineup. If Nobody Wants This couldn’t pull off a win last year for its first, buzzier season, why should I believe it will pull it off now? Especially when stacked up against The Studio. There was a lot of talk during Emmys season that The Studio being so insider-y about the business of Hollywood made it the perfect show for industry awards. It’s somehow an even bigger ringer for the Golden Globes, though, considering it dedicated an entire episode to a particularly hectic night at the Globes. Somebody better damn well thank Sal Sapperstein before the night is through.

The likely winner: The Studio
The fun pick: I dunno … Only Murders in the Building? There are no fun picks here.

Best Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Adolescence
All Her Fault
The Beast in Me
Black Mirror
Dying for Sex
The Girlfriend

The limited/anthology categories are where the Globes’ recent turn toward Emmys obedience has been most disappointing. There are so many shiny new shows about crimes and lies and manipulation — it would be fun to see a series like All Her Fault or The Beast in Me get elevated above other prestige fare, if only for a night. Amazon Prime’s The Girlfriend, about Robin Wright and Olivia Cooke engaging in a high-stakes tug-of-war between a mother and her son’s girlfriend, would have been an incredibly tacky old-timey Globes pick. But no, they’ll go for the acclaimed and thoughtful show about how we’re failing our young boys as a society.

The likely winner: Adolescence
The fun pick: The Girlfriend

Best Actor in a Television Series – Drama

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise
Diego Luna, Andor
Gary Oldman, Slow Horses
Mark Ruffalo, Task
Adam Scott, Severance
Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Wyle’s Emmy win puts him in the driver’s seat here, where he probably deserves to be anyway. It’s tough to begrudge an actor like Wyle, who displays such professional competence and personal vulnerability on The Pitt. Yet again, though: Wyle got an Emmy for this performance. What does he need a Golden Globe for after the fact? Especially when you could give Oldman an overdue award for his fart-y (complimentary) spycraft on Slow Horses or Mark Ruffalo a consolation prize for Task not reaching those Mare of Easttown heights. And good for the Globes for one-upping the Emmys in at least one arena: It nominated Diego Luna for Andor. It would be a whole lot cooler if they gave him the trophy, though.

The likely winner: Noah Wyle
The fun pick: Diego Luna

Best Actress in a Television Series – Drama

Kathy Bates, Matlock
Britt Lower, Severance
Helen Mirren, MobLand
Bella Ramsey, The Last of Us
Keri Russell, The Diplomat 
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus

Lower got the surprise Emmy win over Bates at the Emmys. Could the Golden Globes be where Kathy exacts her revenge? If she does, she’d be the first actress from a CBS program to win a Globe since Julianna Margulies for The Good Wife in 2009. But this is the one category where I think it makes sense to predict the newest show in the category. Pluribus is buzzy, Rhea Seehorn is incredible on the show, and there’s just simply more enthusiasm for her in the culture right now than anyone else in this category.

The likely winner: Rhea Seehorn
The fun pick: Rhea Seehorn

Best Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Adam Brody, Nobody Wants This
Steve Martin, Only Murders in the Building
Glen Powell, Chad Powers
Seth Rogen, The Studio
Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building
Jeremy Allen White, The Bear

“Golden Globe winner Glen Powell in Chad Powers” is the kind of thing that could have won me some Golden Globe prediction pools back in the old days. It’s the perfect scenario: hot new star Glen Powell in a show that people are kind of aware of but which also sounds silly and puts him in a weird wig and fake teeth. If this was 15 years ago, there would be no bigger lock on the Globes ballot. I’m far less certain that the new Golden Globes will have the same sense of adventure. Not when Emmy winner Rogen is there, nominated for a show in which he followed Ted Sarandos into the Beverly Hilton bathroom at a fictional Golden Globes.

The likely winner: Seth Rogen
The fun pick: Glen Powell

Best Actress in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy

Kristen Bell, Nobody Wants This
Ayo Edebiri, The Bear
Selena Gomez, Only Murders in the Building
Natasha Lyonne, Poker Face
Jenna Ortega, Wednesday
Jean Smart, Hacks

This category features a lot of faded buzz, and that’s not just a commentary on The Bear’s fall from critically acclaimed grace. Lyonne is nominated for a show that isn’t coming back (or if it is, it won’t be with her), while Ortega is nominated for the second season of Wednesday, a season about which no living person has ever spoken. And while it seems like a true cosmic injustice that Gomez never won a Golden Globe for Only Murders in the Building, it would be weird for that to happen now. Weird, but not altogether un-fun! Smart won this award last year, and as dull as it would be to run that back, I don’t really think any of her competitors have as strong a claim on the win.

The likely winner: Jean Smart
The fun pick: Selena Gomez

Best Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Jacob Elordi, The Narrow Road to the Deep North
Paul Giamatti, Black Mirror
Stephen Graham, Adolescence
Charlie Hunnam, Monster: The Ed Gein Story
Jude Law, Black Rabbit
Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me

Over the past 20-plus years, Ryan Murphy has produced nine Golden Globe–winning programs for a grand total of 14 awards, not including a Lifetime Achievement Award in 2023. All of this is to say that Hunnam winning a Golden Globe for playing Ed Gein in a Ryan Murphy series would have been perfectly in line with the old Globes. As would giving Law an award for playing a shady restaurateur in Black Rabbit. It even might have extended the love from Elordi’s nomination in the film categories for Frankenstein to this category and awarded him for The Narrow Road to the Deep North. But I’m guessing these Globe voters watched Graham win an Emmy for wrestling with his failures and limitations as a parent in Adolescence. As if Hunnam weren’t wrestling with Ed Gein’s failures and limitations as a son!

The likely winner: Stephen Graham
The fun pick: Charlie Hunnam

Best Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or Television Film

Claire Danes, The Beast in Me
Rashida Jones, Black Mirror
Amanda Seyfried, Long Bright River
Sarah Snook, All Her Fault
Michelle Williams, Dying for Sex
Robin Wright, The Girlfriend

Here’s a category where the Emmy winner — The Penguin’s Cristin Milioti — was nominated at last year’s Globes, so the field is somewhat open. There’s Williams doing typically daring work in Dying for Sex, who probably finished second to Milioti at the Emmys. Then there’s Oscar contender Seyfried, who is double nominated for The Testament of Ann Lee in the movie categories and for Long Bright River as a Philadelphia cop looking for her missing sister. But my guess is that it will come down to a couple of actresses who have been no stranger to TV awards over the last decade-plus. Danes is a four-time Golden Globe winner who brought her quivering lower lip to bear on the role of an author who thinks her next-door neighbor killed his wife. Meanwhile, two-time Globe winner Snook went all in as the mother of a kidnapped child in All Her Fault. Snook won the Critics Choice last weekend, which has no real cause and effect with the Globes voters, except to say that if there’s momentum in the air for one performance in this category, it would be for her.

The likely winner: Sarah Snook
The fun pick: Sarah Snook

Best Supporting Actor in a Television Series — Musical-Comedy or Drama

Owen Cooper, Adolescence
Billy Crudup, The Morning Show
Walton Goggins, The White Lotus
Jason Isaacs, The White Lotus
Tramell Tillman, Severance
Ashley Walters, Adolescence

There’s nothing really new about this lineup — Cooper and Tillman both won Emmys back in September, while Goggins, Isaacs, and Walters were all nominated. The new season of The Morning Show aired after Emmy eligibility, which makes Crudup the freshest in this lineup, and while he’s a two-time Emmy winner for TMS, the Globes has never awarded him for it. He’d make for an interesting winner, especially in a year where his best work — a single-scene wonder in Jay Kelly — went un-nominated. Unfortunately for him, Cooper is a 16-year-old awards-circuit dynamo who has this award pretty much locked down.

The likely winner: Owen Cooper
The fun pick: Billy Crudup

Best Supporting Actress in a Television Series — Musical-Comedy or Drama

Carrie Coon, The White Lotus
Erin Doherty, Adolescence
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks
Catherine O’Hara, The Studio
Parker Posey, The White Lotus
Aimee Lou Wood, The White Lotus

Similarly to the supporting actors, this category is populated with recent Emmy winners (Einbinder and Doherty) and nominees (Coon, Posey, Wood, and O’Hara). For as consistently good as Coon is, it’s becoming conspicuous that she’s never won a major award for her work. Ditto her White Lotus co-star Posey, who has never won so much as an Independent Spirit Award. Either one of them would make for incredibly fun winners. One could also see The Studio’s Globes-courting magic working for O’Hara’s performance as a deposed studio head. But my guess is that this goes to either Doherty in an Adolescence sweep or Einbinder in partial recognition for her bold Emmy speech. “Go Birds, fuck ICE, and free Palestine” is as relevant now as it has ever been.

The likely winner: Hannah Einbinder
The fun pick: Carrie Coon

Best Performance in Stand-up Comedy on Television

Ricky Gervais, Ricky Gervais: Mortality
Brett Goldstein, Brett Goldstein: The Second Best Night of Your Life
Kevin Hart, Kevin Hart: Acting My Age
Bill Maher, Bill Maher: Is Anyone Else Seeing This?
Kumail Nanjiani, Kumail Nanjiani: Night Thoughts
Sarah Silverman, Sarah Silverman: PostMortem

The phrase “nightmare blunt rotation” gets thrown around a lot these days, but holy moly, this group. (Kumail innocent.) This category is only three years old, and my intuition is that it’s already about to get its first two-time winner. Gervais won the first ever Golden Globe for stand-up comedy two years ago, a win that made a ton of sense considering he was at that moment a four-time Globe nominee with one win under his belt who had also hosted the show five incredibly chill times. Both of Gervais’s specials were with Netflix, as was last year’s winner, Ali Wong. If that trend holds, Gervais’s biggest competition should come from Hart or Silverman. Though of these six nominees, only Nanjiani earned placement on Vulture’s list of the ten best stand-up specials of 2025 — and at No. 1 at that.

The likely winner: Ricky Gervais
The fun pick: Kumail Nanjiani