The Unfortunate Fall Movie Fizzle

Gold Rush columnist Nate Jones is on parental leave until mid-November, and his compatriot Joe Reid is taking a much-deserved weeklong vacation from leading our Emmys season and stepping in to helm early Oscars coverage, so you know what that means: While they’re out, it’s time for the critics — namely me, Alison Willmore, and my colleague Bilge Ebiri, who’ll be weighing in later — to run amok on this newsletter with our insufferable opinions that we pretend are about the awards race but are actually incredibly personal. Here’s one that’s been on my mind since Venice, Telluride, and Toronto, the triumvirate of events that kicks off what has traditionally been awards season: This fall has really fizzled out, hasn’t it? 

For decades now, a trio of late-summer film festivals has been the launching pad where most of the films we expect to spend the next six months talking about have their premieres. Each has its own flavor. Venice, which begins at the tail end of August, is all glitz and a gloss of European worldliness, perfect for photo ops of big stars in boats along canals and for the canceled to test the waters to see how temperate the reception for their return might be. Telluride aims for the opposite in terms of vibes, an aerie of forced casualness where billionaires in performance fleece can bump shoulders with George Clooney while riding the gondola and chat about the screenings they’ve been catching. Toronto is, or at least it used to be, the best bang-for-your-buck event, where you can sample most of the same big titles just a few days later in a city that’s considerably cheaper to travel to. Some films play one of these fests, out of strategy or necessity, while occasionally some will hit up all three and then head to the New York Film Festival in late September and early October, achieving the kind of grand slam of awards buzz and timed standing ovations that no one aside from us dorks cares about.

This year’s fests featured a barrage of work from big names and some previous Best Picture winners: Guillermo del Toro with Frankenstein; Yorgos Lanthimos with Bugonia; Luca Guadagnino with After the Hunt; Kathryn Bigelow with A House of Dynamite; Noah Baumbach with Jay Kelly; Benny Safdie’s solo debut, The Smashing Machine; Edward Berger’s Ballad of a Small Player; and Chloé Zhao with Hamnet. And yet despite how good those lineups looked on paper, in practice none of these movies have proven themselves to be surefire awards juggernauts. Frankenstein is art-directed to the point of airlessness, and while Jacob Elordi’s anguished performance as the Creature has gotten attention, Oscar Isaac is woefully miscast in a movie that feels as though it’s likely to get a lot of nominations, especially on the tech side, and no wins. Bugonia is not really an awards movie, despite its timing, and is also an unpleasant watch — and not in the usual carefully calibrated Lanthimos fashion. After the Hunt has faded out of the conversation with a quickness that speaks to the egregiousness of its would-be provocative screenplay, though I continue to believe that Julia Roberts will get a nod for her flinty, contradictory turn as a philosophy professor whose feminism is very Gen X in its scope.

A House of Dynamite played well at Venice and less well at subsequent fests, while Jay Kelly is the kind of movie that’s more interesting for the narrative it creates around George Clooney, who plays a famous movie star, than as a work in itself. Similarly, The Smashing Machine seems to have juice only as a vehicle for the Rock to be taken seriously, and he’s trudging away at that campaign with the determination of an MMA fighter battering a pinned opponent’s face in. Ballad of a Small Player, despite coming from the director of Conclave, may as well not exist. The only pick of that bunch that seems to be getting real traction is Hamnet, and while I wish I liked the movie anywhere near as much as Bilge does, its two lead performances, from Jessie Buckley and Paul Mescal, have an elemental force to them that’s undeniable (even if Mescal’s being positioned as supporting in one of the season’s more blatant cases of category fraud).

What does this all mean? Probably nothing much to a regular moviegoer who’s not getting the chance to jet off to Europe to see things weeks to — in the case of Berlin or Cannes, which was very good this year — months early. But this fall has felt, to me, like it’s highlighting the imperfect alliance between awards and festivals, whose sensibilities and priorities haven’t always meshed. (It’s telling that One Battle After Another, the current Oscar favorite and the most-talked-about movie of the past month, bypassed fests entirely, while the much-discussed Marty Supreme, the other Safdie-brother production, played only at the New York Film Festival as a secret screening.) The recipient of this year’s Golden Lion, the big jury prize at Venice, was Jim Jarmusch’s Father Mother Sister Brother, a triptych of short stories about three different family gatherings. In light of all the awards-season gamesmanship, the choice to honor a film that, with its subdued approach and split-up cast, might as well have been designed to repel easy Oscar narratives (while being bound to pick up a few indie nominations this season anyway) felt like a statement about what a fest might laud that the awards machine won’t.

Venice’s runner-up Grand Jury Prize went to an incendiary, acclaimed film that really was the most talked about at the fest: Kaouther Ben Hania’s The Voice of Hind Rajab, a docudrama featuring the actual emergency-call audio of the 5-year-old of its title, a Palestinian girl killed by Israeli forces early last year. Ben Hania’s feature is so urgent and focused it feels like an open wound, to the point where it’s difficult to even think of it in the context of the receptions and meet-the-talent events that mark this time of year. And yet because awards are the biggest platform we have for a project like this to get attention, it will be out there making the rounds, having just signed a deal with the small distributor Willa for a theatrical release starting on December 17.

In the meantime, we have Wicked: For Good arriving in November and Avatar: Fire and Ash in December, movies that were never going to rely on the festival circuit anyway and that could prove that this year, at least, all the fall fizz came from outside those structures — from a studio system that’s been very much in flux and that needs to demonstrate it still has power to turn out titles that win over the industry as well as the public.

The Gotham Awards Are Weird

Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures/Warner Bros. Pictures

The precursors are here! The Gothams officially kicked off awards season with the announcement of the 2025 nominees. You can read the full list of nominations here. 

The idea of the Gotham Awards as any kind of true precursor to the Oscars belongs in the category of Things We Have to Pretend Are Real, Even Though Everyone Knows They’re Absurd. The Gothams took another step toward that idea this year by announcing that the Best Feature category has been expanded to include ten contenders instead of five, just like the Oscars did back in 2009. Of course, the biggest steps toward the Oscarization of the Gothams happened back in 2023, when budget limitations on eligible films were removed (it used to be $35 million), and in 2024, when a Best Director category was introduced (previously, the Gothams used to give only a Breakthrough Director award). As a result, what was once an early New York–based awards-season party to salute the best in independent and foreign films has now become this strange hybrid of soon-to-be Oscar behemoths and just-happy-to-be-here indie titles.

It’s a hybrid because the Gothams still use basically the same nomination process: Small, annually changing groups of film critics and writers get together and mull the pictures submitted for individual awards. (Full disclosure: I, Bilge, have served on numerous Gothams nomination panels in the past, and my colleague Alison served on one this year, along with other dear friends of mine.) The absurdity lies in this: For the most part, a small group of critics (and by “small,” I mean small — like, five) will follow their hearts, which means there will always be odd nominees and odd absences (or, in the parlance of the trades, “snubs”).

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It doesn’t take much. On a Gothams nominating committee, one passionate naysayer can sometimes prevent a big film from getting a nod. (I have seen it happen.) Similarly, one or two wild-eyed acolytes can get a movie nominated. It’s actually a good system if your ultimate aim is to celebrate exceptional work, draw attention to lower-profile titles, and foster discovery. It’s a terrible system, however, if your aim is to get in on Oscar buzz. And yeah, sometimes there is pushback from the honchos at the Gothams in the case of certain names or movies getting excluded from the final nominations. (I have also seen this happen.)

But let’s embrace the absurdity for now and look at what the Gothams hath wrought. One Battle After Another’s six nominations will surely help it along on the Oscars chase, though that was a fairly foreseeable outcome; in December, a lot of these same critics will be machine-gunning Paul Thomas Anderson’s $130 million Warner Bros. film with awards at the annual meetings of various critics’ circles. Similarly, two other nominees, Train Dreams and Hamnet, feel fairly destined for Best Picture Oscar nominations. More intriguingly, one wonders if the four nominations for Mary Bronstein’s If I Had Legs I’d Kick You suggests some real awards-season juice for what is still a fairly small (albeit beloved) movie.

Thankfully, the Gothams’ Best Feature category is a fairly eclectic lot this year. Do titles like Lurker or Familiar Touch have any kind of shot at Oscar nominations? Probably not. Those are “passiondex” titles: Seeing them on a list like this means that some brave souls really went to bat for them during the nomination process, which also means that you should seek them out. There’s probably a bit more hope, however, for the Sundance breakout Sorry, Baby, not to mention my beloved The Testament of Ann Lee (which still feels a bit too offbeat to be a real awards contender, but a guy can certainly dream).

And what about that Sinners “snub”? Again, these are small groups of people going to bat for their favorites, and the fact that Sinners didn’t make the cut in most of the categories (though Wunmi Mosaku did get nominated for Best Supporting Performance) means nothing for the film’s eventual Oscar chances. It’s a huge studio movie that made buckets of money earlier in the year; a Gotham committee isn’t likely to worry too much about recognizing it. Back in 2023, Oppenheimer and Killers of the Flower Moon also didn’t score any big nominations, even though they absolutely were eligible for them. Indeed, sometimes the nomination committees make a point of trying to avoid the big-studio pictures in a perhaps futile attempt to keep the Gothams’ independent spirit alive. (Yes, nominating One Battle After Another flies in the face of all that.) Also, perhaps more pertinent: Sinners is already getting a big Tribute Award at the Gothams, so it’s entirely possible that the nominators felt this freed them up to not include it for some of the other categories. Either way, the Gotham Awards will mean nothing to Sinners’ eventual Oscars fate.

Best Picture

Up ⬆ One Battle After Another

Photo: Warner Bros.

The Paul Thomas Anderson film grabbed the most Gotham nominations, setting a record at six (among them Best Feature), while being the first major beneficiary of the fact that the formerly indie-centric event lifted the budget cap on submissions in 2023. At this point in time, it’s the obvious awards favorite, though we’ve got months to go.

Even = Hamnet

Photo: Focus Features

With apologies to both films for the inexact comparisons, Chloé Zhao’s marital drama is starting to look like the Shakespeare in Love to PTA’s Saving Private Ryan. Whether history will repeat in terms of upset wins remains to be seen — for now, Hamnet has fared fine at the Gothams without being anywhere near as dominant as its rival.

Current Predix

Bugonia, Hamnet, It Was Just an Accident, Jay Kelly, Marty Supreme, One Battle After Another, Sentimental Value, Sinners, Train Dreams, Wicked: For Good

Best Director

Up ⬆ Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Photo: Logan White/A24

Motherhood black comedy If I Had Legs I’d Kick You got four Gotham noms, which is pretty damn good for a smaller film, but its most impressive feat is the Best Director nod for filmmaker Mary Bronstein. That’s an awfully crowded field this year, but the intensely personal nature and unrelenting discomfort of Bronstein’s panic attack of a portrait clearly impressed at least one nominating committee — maybe it will continue to win over others?

Up ⬆ Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Photo: Vittorio Zunino Celotto/Getty Images

It’s always going to be tougher for something subtitled to hold its own in the bigger categories, but the Iranian dissident filmmaker, freed from the decade-and-a-half ban on travel and filmmaking placed on him by the government, has an unbeatable narrative in addition to a very good film.

Current Predix

Chloé Zhao, Hamnet; Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident; Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value; Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Best Actor

Down ⬇ Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another

Photo: Courtesy Warner Bros.

Safe money has Leo as a lock for a Best Actor Oscar nod, but the fact that so many of his castmates nabbed Gotham nominations while he didn’t is a reminder that his performance, while fun, is the least interesting in a vibrant movie.

Down ⬇ George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Photo: Peter Mountain/Netflix

Is Clooney’s meta star turn going to go over as well with industry voters, as movies about movies are always assumed to? Right now, it’s looking as if Adam Sandler’s turn as a tragically devoted manager is the one people are glomming on to.

Current Predix

Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme; George Clooney, Jay Kelly; Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another; Michael B. Jordan, Sinners; Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Actress

Up ⬆ Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love

Photo: MUBI

Die My Love got mixed buzz out of Cannes and was reportedly being recut prior to its theatrical release, but Jennifer Lawrence’s Gotham nomination, plus her reminding everyone what a delightful presence she is (through both new TV appearances and the recirculation of adorable archival clips from previous talk-show appearances, red carpets, and awards ceremonies), suggests newfound awards-season strength.

Down ⬇ Emma Stone, Bugonia

Photo: Atsushi Nishijima/Focus Features

What the discourse giveth, the discourse also taketh. Last week Stone was up thanks to great reviews as well as the buzz created around the all-bald screenings of Yorgos Lanthimos’s film. Should we worry too much about the fact that she wasn’t nominated for Best Lead Performance at the Gothams, despite Bugonia itself scoring a Best Feature nomination? Probably not. The film opens wide(ish) this weekend, so we’ll soon see what the moviegoing public has to say.

Current Predix

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet; Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good; Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another; Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value; Emma Stone, Bugonia

Best Supporting Actor

Up ⬆ Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Photo: Netflix

Elordi was the sole Gotham nominee from Frankenstein (which, like Sinners, is receiving a special tribute at the ceremony, which helps explains its absence from other categories). That, plus increasing buzz around his performance as the film expands theatrically ahead of its November 7th streaming release, is quickly establishing him as one of Frankenstein’s likely Oscar nominees.

Down ⬇ Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Photo: Warner Bros.

Penn got great reviews for his OBAA turn, and some proclaimed him the immediate front-runner for the Supporting Actor Oscar at the time. Since then, however, his thunder has been stolen by castmate (and Gotham nominee) Benicio del Toro, whose clips have gone viral and whose character is, let’s face it, a lot more adorable.

Current Predix

Benicio del Toro, One Battle After Another; Delroy Lindo, Sinners; Paul Mescal, Hamnet; Sean Penn, One Battle After Another; Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actress

Up ⬆ Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good

Photo: Universal Pictures

She’s a brunette again! And people seem happy about it. More importantly, she seems happier about it. And a happier Ariana Grande means a happier world. Lest anyone worry that shedding the blonde look might also mean leaving Glinda’s legacy behind … Quite the contrary, it’ll remind everyone that Grande is in fact giving a performance in the Wicked movies, and not just playing some extra-bubbly variation on herself.

Up ⬆ Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Photo: Warner Bros.

Actually, I lied when I said the Gotham Awards would mean nothing to Sinners’ eventual Oscars fate. The fact that Mosaku did get a Supporting Performance nomination even amid the film’s overall perceived snub at the Gothams surely helps, both in terms of narrative and visibility.

Current Predix

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value; Amy Madigan, Weapons; Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners; Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good; Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another